Alberta heads to separation referendum as Carney and Smith urge unity

Alberta's referendum is not a binding vote to leave Canada. Voters are choosing whether to remain in the country or begin a process toward a second, binding independence referendum, according to The Conversation.

Separation is only part of the ballot. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has urged voters to support the other nine questions to give her leverage in negotiations with the federal government, Global News reported. Those include immigration and constitutional questions, according to CBC News.

The prospect has drawn mixed reactions within Alberta. At a Calgary library, CBC News found some people excited to vote, others only beginning to follow the process, and several frustrated that a referendum was happening at all.

On October 12, Prime Minister Mark Carney used his Thanksgiving message, delivered from an Alberta classroom, to address the province's non-binding separation question, CBC News reported. He urged Alberta to remain in Canada and warned of a "long and uncertain process", according to South China Morning Post.

Advance voting opened on October 13 and ran through Saturday, October 17, according to CBC Top Stories. The campaign then moved into its final days, with politicians urging supporters of Canadian unity to turn out.

On October 14, Smith said she had voted to stay in Canada. In a social media video, she said it was not the time to give up hope on the country, while urging support for the other nine questions, Global News reported.

By October 16, Carney was framing the vote partly as a matter of external pressure. "Some outside our borders are working to break us so they can own us," he said, according to The Hindu. The Independent reported his warning as directed at the United States. That was Carney's claim, not evidence in the supplied coverage of interference in the vote.

Carney and Smith also appeared together to pitch a pro-Canada vote, Global News reported on October 16. Carney made a final appeal on Friday, warning that the referendum was a dangerous gamble, according to NBC News.

The latest polling points away from separation. A survey reported on October 18 by Global News found fewer than one quarter of Albertans supported a separation vote, while support for the other nine questions was growing. Earlier, National Post reported support for remaining in Canada in the high 60s. The reports describe different measures, but both suggest the independence movement faces an uphill vote.

Federal Liberals and Conservatives are both calling for a decisive result in favour of remaining in Canada, CBC News reported on October 18. Smith has said that if a majority votes to stay, she expects everyone to accept the result and move on, according to Global News.

Referendum day is October 19, when just over 1,400 polling stations are due to open, according to Global News. The separation result will determine whether voters back starting the process toward a binding referendum, not whether Alberta immediately leaves Canada.

The other nine results will also matter to Smith's negotiating strategy. Beyond the count, the unresolved question is whether a defeat would settle the separation debate: Al Jazeera reported that the movement faces likely defeat but that losing a referendum may not end its campaign.