Cyclone Arnab Approaches Andhra Pradesh as Evacuations and Rain Warnings Expand

The threat emerged from a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal. On October 23, Business Line reported that it was expected to move west-north-westwards, strengthen into a deep depression and become a cyclonic storm by October 26.

The first forecasts already put the Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts in focus. The Hindu reported on October 23 that the storm was likely to hit the north Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28. Red warnings for extremely heavy rain covered October 27 and 28, and fishermen at sea were asked to return to shore.

By October 24, forecasts pointed to a potentially very severe cyclonic storm. The Hindu reported a likely landfall between Bapatla and Vizag on October 28, possible winds of 130 kilometres per hour and red alerts for 13 districts in Andhra Pradesh.

Odisha also began restricting classes. On October 24, Indian Express reported that schools and colleges had been closed in five districts as the state went on high alert.

On October 25, preparations shifted towards moving people out of danger. Indian Express reported that Odisha was mobilising personnel and ordering evacuations. In Andhra Pradesh, APSDMA Managing Director Prakhar Jain said landfall was likely between Machilipatnam and Visakhapatnam, with winds expected to reach 140 kilometres per hour, according to The Hindu.

By October 26, Andhra Pradesh had shifted 4,711 pregnant women to health facilities and deployed 15 NDRF and SDRF teams. The Hindu reported that Naidu had ordered evacuations, with heavy to extremely heavy rain forecast in 13 districts on October 28 and 29.

Odisha's school closures had expanded to six districts by October 26. Mint also reported that eight ministers had been deployed to oversee preparedness.

As of October 26, the forecasts continue to point to an October 28 arrival along the Andhra Pradesh coast. The India Meteorological Department described an impending very severe cyclonic storm approaching the coast and warned of isolated extremely heavy rainfall in Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Chhattisgarh.

The coverage is not uniform on the expected intensity. Mint described a forecast for a severe cyclonic storm, while the India Meteorological Department briefing referred to a very severe cyclonic storm. Earlier reports also gave different landfall corridors, so the precise crossing point and peak strength remain unsettled.

Preparations now extend beyond coastal evacuations and school closures. Indian Express reported on October 26 that the railways had strengthened emergency preparedness and set up a round-the-clock war room.

The next forecasts will be important for narrowing the landfall location, expected wind speeds and areas facing the heaviest rain. The latest India Meteorological Department briefing places the storm near the Andhra Pradesh coast on October 28, while Andhra Pradesh's district-level rain warnings extend into October 29, according to The Hindu.

Rainfall risks may also shift inland as the system moves. Business Line reported that the cyclone was expected to track north-northeastwards, drawing its rain belt across eastern and central India and away from much of the southern peninsula.