Democrats Lead US Midterm Polls as Senate Control Remains Uncertain

Republicans entered the final stretch holding majorities in both the House and Senate, according to ABCNews.com. The November 3 elections will determine whether they keep that control for the rest of President Donald Trump's term.

All 435 House seats and 35 Senate seats are being contested, La Nacion reported. Democrats need 218 seats to take the House, according to The Independent. Winning that chamber and winning the Senate are separate tests, even when national polls point in the same direction.

On October 26, Nate Silver offered a blunt assessment of the House race: polling "would have to be very wrong" for Republicans to retain control, The Hill reported. His assessment set a high bar for a Republican escape, without ruling one out.

On October 27, The Hill reported an eight-point Democratic advantage in the Marist survey conducted alongside NPR and PBS News. CBS Top Stories also reported Democratic polling leads in both chambers, but described the Senate advantage as narrow.

Trump's approval figures varied across the coverage. Forbes reported 40% approval in the NPR/PBS/Marist poll on October 27, while an October 28 headline from Indian Express put approval at 32%. Those accounts do not establish a single, consistent approval trend.

By October 29, expectations of Democratic gains were strengthening. CNN reported that an election forecaster had shifted 63 races in Democrats' favor. Still, NYT Politics said much would depend on a few close Senate contests, even as some kind of Democratic wave appeared likely.

On October 30, Forbes reported that a new Emerson College poll gave Democrats a double-digit lead on the generic congressional ballot. The same day, The Independent reported Silver's warning that Democratic leads in key Senate battlegrounds "are all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping."

The strongest Democratic signal is in the House. The Senate remains less settled: a national advantage does not resolve the close state races that will decide control. CBC News identified a handful of states and districts with tight contests as central to the outcome.

Early voting is already substantial, although the reported totals differ. La Nacion reported 39,636,514 early votes through October 29, while News18 reported nearly 48 million Americans had voted in its October 30 coverage. The supplied accounts do not explain the difference. The latter report also said Democrats were outpacing Republicans in early ballots, which is not itself a final election result.

Trump is changing his closing campaign schedule. Al Jazeera reported on October 30 that he had canceled rallies in Kansas and Iowa, opting instead for telephone events across nearly 20 states over the weekend.

The key question on November 3 is whether Democrats' national polling strength translates into enough seats to win one chamber or both. The close Senate races deserve particular attention because Silver's warning concerns margins small enough to be reversed by an ordinary polling error, according to The Independent.

The results will also test how much room Trump has to pursue his agenda during his remaining two years. Deutsche Welle described the elections as both decisive for his presidency and a judgment on his second term.