Iran claims US drone seizures as tanker attacks continue in Hormuz

The dispute began with Iranian claims that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had captured US underwater drones in the Strait of Hormuz. On September 27, Times of India reported the claimed seizure of a second drone, identified as an Mk 18 Mod 2 Kingfish.

The supplied coverage does not independently establish the seizures. It also differs on the equipment involved: Tehran Times described the second captured craft as an uncrewed surface vessel in a September 28 analysis, while other reports called it an underwater drone.

On September 28, Brigadier General Hossein Mohebbi, spokesperson for the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps, said the strait was not open and had become a hunting ground for US underwater vehicles, according to IRNA English. That day, Middle East Eye reported that US Central Command rejected Iran's claim of complete control over the waterway.

On September 29, NDTV News reported that an unknown projectile had struck a ship the previous evening, causing a fire. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre said the crew were safe. Separately, تسنیم carried an IRGC spokesperson's claim that US warships had retreated 500 kilometres from Hormuz; the supplied coverage offers no independent confirmation of that claim.

On September 30, Middle East Eye reported that the IRGC said its forces regularly attacked small vessels and blocked their passage. Commercial traffic nevertheless continued: CNBC reported that crude exports through Hormuz had reached prewar levels, while fuel shipments remained constrained.

Further tanker attacks followed. On October 1, Arab News reported that a tanker had been hit by an unknown projectile, causing a fire. On October 2, Arab News reported another strike that caused a small fire and a blackout aboard an outbound tanker.

On October 3, Mint reported the maritime agency's account that two oil tankers had been struck by unidentified projectiles on Friday. These reports should not be added together as a definitive attack count, because the supplied summaries do not establish which accounts describe separate incidents.

On October 4, Middle East Eye reported another tanker strike, this time damaging its engine room. The same day, IRNA English reported that Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Iran would not reopen the strait until seven conditions in the Islamabad memorandum were fulfilled.

Iran's declaration that the strait remains closed sits alongside evidence of substantial oil movements. On October 3, Arab News reported that Iraq's Oil Tankers Company had transported two million barrels of crude through Hormuz. The Guardian reported on October 1 that crude exports had largely returned to prewar levels, although refined products such as diesel remained constrained.

That recovery does not mean passage is safe. New York Times reported on October 2, citing a Western security official, that Iran was launching drones and missiles at commercial ships each week, though often missing its targets. The drone seizures remain Iranian claims, while the reported tanker damage shows the continuing danger to shipping.

The immediate issues are whether tanker attacks continue and whether recovered crude flows can be sustained. CNBC reported that the recovery depended on US military protection for tankers in the Persian Gulf.

Iran's stated reopening conditions are another unresolved issue. IRNA English reported the demand for fulfilment of seven conditions, but the supplied coverage does not spell them out or establish progress toward meeting them.