Tesla and SpaceX merger speculation builds as AI revenue surges

The latest round of Tesla and SpaceX merger speculation began with an analyst forecast, not an announced agreement. On October 14, Bloomberg Technology reported that Barclays analysts saw a possible announcement ahead of Tesla's annual general meeting.

elEconomista.es, citing Bloomberg, put the expected window before December. Its report also made the qualification clear: Barclays was describing a possibility, not a settled transaction.

By October 16, the speculation had gained traction in prediction markets. CNBC reported that Kalshi odds for a Tesla and SpaceX merger by early 2027 had risen above 50 percent as Barclays outlined how a deal could work. Those odds measured market expectations, not confirmation from either company.

On October 19, attention shifted toward the financial case. Reuters framed the companies' earnings as a test of Elon Musk's AI spending ambitions as merger talk grew. MarketWatch reported that SpaceX's business renting access to computing power was generating substantial revenue growth, but at a high cost.

The connection between SpaceX and AI was already direct. On October 20, The Hindu reported that SpaceX had absorbed Musk's xAI in February, months before its June IPO, and that spending by both Tesla and SpaceX was pointing toward AI.

SpaceX's October 20 earnings then supplied a measure of that shift. According to The Verge, the company reported third quarter revenue of $14.6 billion, up 161 percent from a year earlier, attributing the increase to its Super Intelligence segment and faster growth in Connectivity.

Business Insider reported another milestone: SpaceX's AI revenue exceeded its Starlink revenue for the first time. The report also described growing capital spending, keeping the cost of that expansion in focus.

The supplied coverage does not establish that Tesla and SpaceX have agreed to merge or confirmed formal negotiations. The case for an announcement rests on Barclays' forecast, while the prediction market figures reported by CNBC show how traders have priced the possibility.

The earnings results make AI central to the discussion. SpaceX now has rapid AI revenue growth alongside rising investment, according to Business Insider. That sharpens the spending question raised by Reuters, but it does not settle whether combining the companies would make financial sense.

The next concrete test is whether either company announces a transaction within Barclays' suggested window, before December and ahead of Tesla's annual general meeting, as reported by elEconomista.es and Bloomberg Technology. Until then, the distinction between an analyst scenario and a company commitment remains important.

The other question is whether AI revenue growth can support the investment behind it. MarketWatch identified computing costs as a concern, while Business Insider reported rising capital spending. Further financial disclosures will matter to assessing that balance, with or without a merger.